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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:35.0
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:167
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:15-2
Expected Conf Record:15-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC Record:10-3
Expected OOC RPI:27
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-535.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Saint Mary's (40.0)WCCA92-74L0%0.0
11-17New Mexico (118.0)MWCH75-56W100%0.0
11-22Colorado St. (234.0)MWCH89-76W100%0.0
11-25UTEP (293.0)CUSAH72-63W100%0.0
11-30UTEP (293.0)CUSAA60-80W100%0.0
12-3Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACH69-57W100%0.0
12-6San Diego (143.0)WCCH60-65L0%0.0
12-9New Mexico (118.0)MWCA62-65W100%0.0
12-16Illinois (181.0)B10N69-74W100%0.0
12-22Davidson (47.0)A10N69-68W100%0.0
12-23Miami FL (28.0)ACCN54-63W100%0.0
12-25USC (34.0)P12N72-77L0%0.0
12-28UC Irvine (119.0)BWA60-65W100%0.0
1-6Chicago St. (335.0)WACA60-97W100%0.0
1-11Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA59-70W100%0.0
1-13Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACA53-66W100%0.0
1-18Seattle (165.0)WACH75-62W100%0.0
1-20Utah Valley (83.0)WACH86-59W100%0.0
1-27UMKC (256.0)WACA48-73W100%0.0
2-3UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACH90-67W100%0.0
2-8Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACH69-43W100%0.0
2-10Grand Canyon (156.0)WACH74-70W100%0.0
2-15Utah Valley (83.0)WACA86-79L0%0.0
2-17Seattle (165.0)WACA73-63L0%0.0
2-22Chicago St. (335.0)WACH78-67W100%0.0
2-24UMKC (256.0)WACH82-58W100%0.0
3-3UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACA71-86W100%0.0
3-8Chicago St. (335.0)WACN97-70W100%0.0
3-9Seattle (165.0)WACN84-79W100%0.0
3-10Grand Canyon (156.0)WACN72-58W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC26.6526.6585.0085.0018.6518.65
Grand CanyonWAC5.975.9772.4172.412.682.68
SeattleWAC5.875.8759.2659.261.091.09
Chicago St.WAC5.795.793.703.70-5.36-5.36
Utah ValleyWAC4.314.3166.6766.671.441.44
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.284.2846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
UMKCWAC4.254.2529.6329.63-1.73-1.73
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.224.2236.0036.00-1.18-1.18
New MexicoMWC3.473.4758.0658.060.560.56
UTEPCUSA3.383.3835.7135.71-0.97-0.97
Saint Mary'sWCC1.831.8384.3884.381.261.26
San DiegoWCC1.801.8055.1755.170.190.19
Colorado St.MWC1.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
UC IrvineBW1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB101.741.7443.3343.33-0.23-0.23
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
DavidsonA101.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
Miami FLACC1.671.6773.3373.330.780.78
USCP121.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
Boise St.MWC0.290.2973.3373.330.130.13
UC RiversideBW0.270.2724.1424.14-0.14-0.14
Grambling St.SWAC0.270.2753.3353.330.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.240.2462.0762.070.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.230.2348.4848.48-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
RiceCUSA0.220.2217.2417.24-0.14-0.14
BYUWCC0.220.2270.5970.590.090.09
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
HawaiiBW0.210.2153.5753.570.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.210.2110.3410.34-0.16-0.16
WyomingMWC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Washington St.P120.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
UNLVMWC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
ArizonaP120.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
CaliforniaP120.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
NevadaMWC0.160.1679.4179.410.090.09
Air ForceMWC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
IdahoBSky0.150.1568.9768.970.060.06
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
IowaB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Saint LouisA100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.130.1316.1316.13-0.09-0.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1312.5012.50-0.10-0.10
OregonP120.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1112.5012.50-0.08-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1130.7730.77-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
PurdueB100.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
UC DavisBW0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
WashingtonP120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Little RockSB0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1124.2424.24-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
DukeACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Texas St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
George WashingtonA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01